Lancashire public health boss: "Mini-outbreaks" of Covid likely in future - and residents must stay strong over social distancing

It is likely that there will be “mini-outbreaks” of coronavirus in Lancashire as lockdown restrictions start to be lifted – meaning that residents must continue to maintain social distancing in order to minimise the spread of the disease.
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That was the message from the county’s director of public health, who also said that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if there was a second wave of Covid-19 infections – and warned that the virus is here to stay for the time being.

In a joint interview with this newspaper, Lancs Live and Blog Preston, Dr. Sakthi Karunanithi said he understood why people may be getting “fatigued” about staying at home – which the most recent government guidance states people should continue to do “as much as possible”.

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“The message and how it’s perceived by parts of society has become much more nuanced. It was a very blunt instrument to have a ‘lockdown’ – but now it’s about what we can and can’t do and how we stay safe in the ever-changing environment.

Dr. Sakthi karunanithi, Lancashire director of public healthDr. Sakthi karunanithi, Lancashire director of public health
Dr. Sakthi karunanithi, Lancashire director of public health

“I am concerned about that. It is possible for people to misinterpret it and forget about staying at home, which is the only thing that has kept the disease away.

“But we can’t stay at home forever either. It’s very important to understand the core [message] – which is about being physically distant from each other and [good] hygiene.

“It’s not all in the hands of health professionals – it needs a massive, societal-wide effort,” Dr. Karunanithi explained.

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With the first tentative lifting of lockdown restrictions last week – and the possibility of more at the start of next month if the government’s five tests for relaxing the rules are being met nearer the time – Dr. Karunanithi warned people against taking these gradual moves as a green light to go further.

He said that mixing of households – currently not permitted, with the exception of two people meeting two metres apart in the open air – would be “very risky” and that mass gatherings were a “no-no”. Both increased the chances of the virus spreading, he said.

As the country moves towards a test, track and trace strategy – which the Prime Minister this week said would be in place from 1st June – Dr. Karunanithi warned that Covid testing was not without its own challenges, both in terms of execution and impact.

“There’s no point in a test and not having the result, ideally within a 24-hour period, to reassure people – and put other control measures [such as isolation] in place where they’re needed.

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“We simply don’t have enough testing capacity for every contact [of an infected person] – so there is a need for prioritisation of who we actually test.

“The quicker we test, the quicker we isolate, the quicker we track.

“The impact on some essential services is huge if we take a chunk of people out of action. So that needs a very carefully organised and timely response, particularly as we go into the future, [when] we will be seeing lots of mini and localised outbreaks.

“There’s also an emerging understanding of the disease surrounding people who haven’t got symptoms, but could be the source [of an outbreak].”

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Dr. Karunanithi said that the county was now moving towards a “three-lane” approach to tackling coronavirus – by continuing to contain it, slowly reopening some services and parts of society and keeping an eye on how restrictions are affecting inequalities and the economy – “all of that has an impact on our health and wellbeing,” he said.

He also thanked the people of Lancashire for their efforts over what has been a tough two months.

“We need to look after our families and the community. Lancashire residents have been absolutely brilliant so far in beating the virus and following the guidance. It’s important we continue to do that and seek help when we need it.

“It’s causing a lot of drain and frustration – it’s okay not to be okay and seek help when we need it.”

Dr. Karunanithi on…

…face coverings at the supermarket

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“The chance of spreading [virus] droplets on surfaces is less if we cover our faces, especially in enclosed spaces. But I don’t want people to have a false sense of security because of a face covering. Those kind of [cloth] face coverings won’t protect you from getting the virus.”

…the impact of Covid on Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME) communities

“There are still lots of question marks. There’s the nature of the job people do, the underlying risks that are affecting BAME groups more, metabolic reasons and the ability to mount a response – so there are lots of hypotheses.

Vitamin D is not a causal link, but contributes especially when people are staying indoors. It contributes to our immune response so we’ve recommended everyone take Vitamin D supplementation.

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[The explanation for the impact on BAME people] is not quite as clear cut as we want to see. That’s why the risk assessment and research is really important.”

…marking Eid Day

“We should all celebrate Eid, it’s just going to be very different to last year. We still need to maintain distancing and we still should avoid mass gatherings – and that might mean we might not be able to go to the mosque or family get-togethers. But that is for our safety and I want to say a big thank you to the Muslim community and also my best wishes for Eid celebrations.”

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