Letters - Tuesday October 13, 2020

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has worked wonders supporting businesses and jobs over much of this pandemic – but the tornado-threatening clouds are appearing on the horizon with imminent mass job losses in the country.

The realisation is dawning on people who have been clinging on to their jobs on a knife-edge through furlough that the next few months to Christmas and spring will be a defining and critical period for them, Mr Sunak and the Government.

A government can only function through successful businesses, hard graft and paying taxes.

Governments have to put in place and prioritise the mechanisms that enable a company to succeed and thrive.

As a country we have to survive this hideous time in our lives and history and surely supporting companies to take on trainee and apprenticeships to give our youth and the unemployed a purpose and motivation is a must.

Or do we want to see them a year on in a desperate Jarrow-type march?

Even this is probably not going to be sufficient for all those who are in the wrong place at the wrong time – school and university leavers now and over the next few years.

This could be a defining time in this national emergency to re-introduce National Service.

One of our greatest assets – and one that the majority feel proud of and trust – is our military.

We have the expertise and the facilities for our youth to serve their country and be given opportunities and challenges learning valuable technical and life skills, discipline, fitness and adventure. They could help (not with weapons) our stretched services assisting communities both home and abroad in serious floods (pictured) and other life-saving support.

My elder brother was called up and ended up on the personal staff of Field Marshall Sir William (Bill) Slim (later Viscount), Chief of the Imperial Staff and a national military icon.

Keith Massey

via email

Virus

Be grateful you’re not in running things

It is clear from letters that many people do not understand or appreciate the complexity of decision-making in the current crisis. If they did they would not be so critical of what the government and all governments, are doing.

The following are the key reasons why deciding what policies to pursue are so horrendously difficult in times of crisis.

Firstly, the parasite covid-19 is brand new. Very little about it was known when it emerged in China last year. There are numerous viruses and they are all different. Hence this one cannot be tackled by measures used against the flu virus or any of the nine major world plagues since 1890.

Secondly, decisions are therefore being made in what statisticians call ‘deep uncertainty’. Strategies and tactics have to be made and applied, plus assumptions, in a situation that is fraught with the unexpected and unknown. Models are developed that are often discovered to be of little use.

Thirdly, scientists differ over approaches and solutions. This is the nature of science when faced with uncertainty. Hence, the conflicting advice from SAGE and elsewhere. U-turns are inevitable. Trial and error becomes mandatory.

Fourthly, deep uncertainty forces adaptations over time as new data and knowledge is obtained. The paradigm is monitor and adapt. If the virus mutates, as the flu virus does, then the complexity increases.

Fifthly, the past is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. We only know that we do not know. We live in a vacuum due to a lack of information or reliable data.

Sixthly, in times of crisis the unpredictable always happens. These ‘black swan’ events, are outside normal expectations and make scientific modelling fiendishly difficult.

In brief, have some sympathy with those in Whitehall and in the corridors of power around the world and be grateful you are not in the driving seat.

Dr Barry Clayton

via email

Virus

Do figures tell the full story?

On the Worldometer website, we can see on a daily basis all the countries around the world, showing figures for each country of people infected with Covid-19. It also shows those who have recovered and active cases etc.

What surprised me is that our Government only advises the numbers who are infected, whether they are ill or not. It doesn’t show us the numbers of those who have recovered.

For instance, on October 7, the total number recorded around the world who have been affected was 36.38 million. Of those, 27.4 million had recovered. Therefore 7.9 million were active cases and, of those, 7,920 were critically ill. In the UK, the number of critically ill was 410. Unfortunately we are not given the numbers which have recovered or active cases but out of a total population of 67.9 million, does this figure of 410 really call for a second lockdown, which will cripple many businesses and put this country on its knees?

C Fazackerley

via email